What A Peter Obi Candidature Will Do For PDP

By ONWUASOANYA FCC JONES

Some PDP members I have spoken with argue that their problem with a Peter Obi candidature is that it does not have the potentials to generate the kind of votes they expect from Nigerians. It is their analysis that, for the PDP to stand any chance of winning the presidency, then they must present a Northern candidate, since it is almost a given that the APC candidate would be coming from the South, most likely, the Southwest.

I agree that, should things remain the way they currently are in the APC, then, the race for the Party’s Presidential ticket may as well have narrowed to a three horse race between Bola Tinubu, Rotimi Amaechi and then, Yemi Osibanjo. Except President Muhammadu Buhari brings his weight to bear, then, the aspirant who appears to have an unassailable edge is Bola Tinubu, unfortunately. But, that’s if, the President’s mystery “preferred candidate” is a mere ruse and doesn’t materialize.

In fact, if the President refuses to interfere with the choice of the Party’s next flag bearer, then it would take the most unimaginable political upset to stop Bola Tinubu from getting the Party’s nod to fly the Party’s flag in the next election.

Given that it is most unlikely that the APC candidate will emerge from outside the South, the PDP has to do a proper analysis and find out which of their aspirants has the best chance of defeating even the most formidable APC candidate, which, at the moment seems to be Tinubu.

Peter Obi is unarguably the most popular politician from the Southern part of the country, at the moment. If he is on the ballot, it will be almost impossible for any politician to beat him in any of the Southern States. He is also very popular in the North Central parts of the country, especially; Plateau, Benue, Taraba and among the Christian dominated parts of Niger, Nasarawa and Kogi. A Peter Obi ticket will also be an easy sale in the Federal Capital Territory.

An Atiku or Saraki candidacy will struggle to break through in the North, because an APC Southern candidacy will depend on the natural support of President Buhari in the Northwest and Northeast to scale through. It would be wrong analysis to think that an Atiku candidacy will have a smooth ride in the North, because the APC would be confident of clearing at least half of the votes from the Northwest and Northeast.

With Kwakwanso almost guaranteed of being on the ballot on the banner of the newly registered New Nigerian Party, no Northern PDP candidate can win in the Northwest. The struggle for the votes in the Northwest and even some parts of the Northeast will be between the APC and the NNP. Kwakwanso is easily a more acceptable leader to the average Northern voter than Atiku or Saraki.

Also, a Peter Obi candidacy will unite the Party more than any other candidacy. Peter Obi has ran a clean campaign. He has taken care not to disparage any of the other PDP candidates, so, it will be easy for all the other candidates to willingly unite behind him and help him galvanize votes in their different States and regions.

Nigerians are tired of my Party, the APC, but most of the voters would rather stay back home and enjoy the election holiday than vote any of the candidates that they consider as being the same with previous leaders. To the average Nigerian voter, Peter Obi represents a break from the uninspiring and retrogressive past that they are anxious to move away from. The PDP would be bungling a very wonderful opportunity to cash in on Nigerians’ desire for a fresh breath, if they elect a flag bearer with the same burden as those that have wrecked the country.